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Understanding Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine

A doctrine is a set of principles that are formulated for a specific purpose. A nuclear doctrine, therefore, is a set of principles formulated for employing or not employing nuclear weapons and the associated systems in the wake of war.

Pakistan, since its inception in 1947, is aware of its strategic location in the South Asia and also of the hostile and much more muscular enemy in its neighborhood. Both factors have raised the security concerns of the successive governments of Pakistan manifold. Pakistan’s main concern has been its security and territorial integrity which has been threatened and violated by India many times since 1947. Pakistan has fought three wars and two border conflicts short of war with India. In 1971 Pakistan was dismembered by Indian military intervention.

Pakistan has always been against nuclear weapons and its pursuance of nuclear programme was out of the need of maintaining strategic balance in the region while India has always been seeking a strategic lead in the region. Pakistan is aware of the fact that it is impossible to achieve strategic balance in the region with conventional weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine commits to the people of Pakistan to maintain a strategic balance with India rather than keep pace with it. In Pakistan, it is the military that has control over the nuclear button, and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is operated under military control through service specific strategic commands. Pakistan’s scientists have been found for proliferating showing the irresponsible behavior on the part of Pakistan’s government.

Important aspects of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine: Following are the areas of focus for the Pakistani deterrent.

  1. It must be a minimum credible deterrent,

  2. Pakistan must engage in a security dialogue with India,

  3. Peace should be high on the bilateral agenda due to the nuclear shadow,

  4. Nuclear restraint,

  5. Prevention of a missile race,

  6. Establishment of risk reduction centers,

  7. Moratorium on testing,

  8. Non-induction of ABM and naval leg of the triad; and

  9. Conventional stabilisation through mutual and balanced reduction of forces and armaments.

Pakistan has been pursuing its nuclear programme since 1970. Pakistan started its nuclear programme due to three reasons:

  1. Pakistan’s military inferiority, which became more pronounced after the 1970 war.

  2.  Pakistan’s leadership was convinced that India was secretly pursuing its nuclear programme, and,

  3. Bhutto believed that only nuclear weapons could guarantee Pakistan’s security against Indian threats.

Initially the programme was covert. Although the world was aware of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, yet Pakistan was not a declared nuclear weapon state. It was only after the nuclear testing of May, 1998 that both India and Pakistan became declared nuclear states. After the nuclear tests, the world’s sympathies were with Pakistan, owing to the fact that after India tested its nuclear missiles, Pakistan was left with no option but to respond with similar testing and that if Pakistan had not tested, the strategic balance in the region would have severely disturbed. So much so that President Bill Clinton admitted that:

Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine commits to the people of Pakistan to maintain a strategic balance with India rather than keep pace with it.

  • Pakistan never promised that it will not test its nuclear weapons,

  • Pakistan conducted the tests in duress, and

  • Pakistan declared several times that it does not want a nuclear bomb, but what guarantee could the world community offer to Pakistan against India after its nuclear tests.

However the Kargil adventure of 1999 turned the world upside down for Pakistan and Pakistan was socially isolated on account of the irresponsible behaviour that it exhibited. India succeeded in convincing the world that Pakistan should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons because it cannot behave responsibly due to its immaturity.

Pakistan’s policy for nuclear and strategic weapons: Pakistan wishes not only to deter a nuclear attack but also a conventional attack by compensating for its conventional disadvantages through nuclear means. However, having said all, Pakistan has not declared its deterrence doctrine in contrast to India whose nuclear doctrine is known to the world. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is based on various statements made by political and military leaders which constitute the thrust of its doctrine.

In the absence of a published nuclear doctrine there remains a lot of ambiguity about Pakistan’s specific purpose for attaining nuclear weapons and what is the desired goal for its nuclear weapons policy.

However Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has three pillars:

  • The capability of launching a strike,

  • The resolve to launch a strike whenever needed, and

  • Communicating the will and the resolve to India.

Pakistan’s nuclear capability is solely for the purpose of deterrence of aggression and defence of sovereignty. Pakistan also reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to non-strategic attacks by India as a ‘last resort. Pakistan’s government has declared four possible situations that might lead to a nuclear response or escalation by Pakistan.

  1. Spatial threshold: i.e. penetration of Indian forces into Pakistan’s territory,

  2. Military threshold: i.e. loss of a large part of Pakistan’s land or air forces,

  3. Political threshold: i.e. destabilization of the country by India, and

  4. Economic threshold: i.e. economic strangulation of Pakistan by India.

Pakistan’s doctrine does not provide for a ‘no first use’ on the pretext that it has developed its programme against a nuclear state which is also superior in conventional weaponry.

There have been at least three instances when Pakistan and Indian forces were close to fighting a war but war did not take place. First time in 1986-87 when it was Brass Tacks mobilisation of forces by India, second time in 1990 when relations between the two became severely estranged and finally in 2001-2002 when both the forces were in eye ball to eye ball contact after Indian “Cold Start” doctrine, in all these instances both the forces kept from fighting a war despite all odds. Thus it can be safely assumed that the success of deterrence lies in the absence of war.

Effective deterrence also requires credibility and lack of credibility leads to failure of deterrence. In fact lack of credibility is the dilemma that Pakistan faces today due to multiple incidences, the latest being the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan’s territory. Once a state loses its credibility, it resorts to every action that it does not desire but it has to do in order to restore its credibility in the world. This is what Pakistan is facing in the contemporary world.

Pakistan has also not ratified CTBT and is a non signatory of NPT. The world has been pressing Pakistan to ratify CTBT and sign the NPT, but Pakistan has not done it so far. Pakistan has been repeating that it will not sign the NPT until India does the same and even after India signs it, Pakistan will sign it on the condition that it will be given the same status and facilities that have been given to India and other recognised nuclear weapon states.

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons: Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who founded the programme while he was Minister for Fuel, Power and Natural Resources, and later became President and Prime Minister. Shortly after the loss of East Pakistan in the 1971 war with India, Bhutto initiated the programme with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972. India’s 1974 testing of a nuclear “device” gave Pakistan’s nuclear programme new momentum. Through the late 1970s, Pakistan’s programme acquired sensitive uranium enrichment technology and expertise. The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced these efforts. Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist who brought with him knowledge of gas centrifuge technologies that he had acquired through his position at the classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant in the Netherlands. Dr. Khan was put in charge of building, equipping and operating Pakistan’s Kahuta facility, which was established in 1976. In 1985, Pakistan crossed the threshold of weapons-grade uranium production, and by 1986 it is thought to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan continued advancing its uranium enrichment programme, and according to Pakistani sources, the nation acquired the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987.

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